2008年9月29日至10月2日海温异常与地震

杨学祥

图1 2008年9月29日与10月2日海温异常对比（白色为海冰）

从图1中可以看到，与10月2日新西兰克马德克群岛5.5级地震、汤加5.4级地震、菲律宾4.9级地震、10月1日印度尼西5.0级地震、菲律宾5.2级地震、俄罗斯4.8级地震、日本5.7级地震和智利阿根廷交界5级地震相对应，西太平洋海温正异常区明显增强，且向东部扩展，北半球中纬度地区海温正异常区已连成一片，加利福尼亚半岛附近海温正异常区稳步扩大。东西太平洋海温正异常区正逐渐靠近，估计在5-7日和13-17日强潮汐时段有更快发展[5]。

2008年8-9月为弱潮汐时期，8月没有发生7级以上地震，9月中下旬强潮汐时段按预测发生了2次7级以上地震。根据地震潮汐波动规律和厄尔尼诺发展态势，新一轮强震周期已经开始，2008年10月-2009年2月强潮汐时期为强震周期，2008年12月-2009年1月为强震高潮时期[1]。这是继2008年5-6月强震高潮时期后[2，3]，又一次规模较大的强震高潮时期。

拉尼娜事件的结束加强了2008年5-6月的强震高潮时期，厄尔尼诺事件的开始也会加强2008年12月-2009年1月的强震高潮时期。我们必须做好预防的准备。

俄新网10月2日电 南萨哈林斯克地震站工作人员向俄新社记者表示，地震站专家们在过去一昼夜中测量到，千岛群岛地区北部的新知岛发生了一次新的地震。这名工作人员说，“萨哈林时间1日11：53分（莫斯科时间4：53分），新知岛东南部40公里处发生了一次震幅为4.8级的地震。”按照俄罗斯紧急情况部萨哈林州业务值班总局的报告，萨哈林州对本次地震没有感觉。没有人员伤亡、没有造成损失，也没有海啸发生。从2006年11月15日开始，千岛群岛就地震不断。当时新知岛地区发生了震幅7.9级的强震，结果出现了海啸警报。千岛群岛沿海居民因此撤离，但幸运的是，地震威胁过去了。 从那时候起，千岛群岛地区发生过870多次震幅在4级以上的余震，但没有一次地震为千岛群岛居民带来损失。 据俄罗斯科学院远东分院海洋地质和地质物理研究所学者消息，这一地区地震积极性停止过程还将持续几年[4]。

Recent Earthquakes

10/01/2008

M 5.7, Izu Islands, Japan region(日本30.092°N, 138.841°E)

09/29/2008

M 7.0, Kermadec Islands, New Zealand(克马德克群岛29.860°S, 177.653°W)

http://www.iris.edu/hq/audience/public/earthquakes

发震地点 发震时刻 纬度 经度 深度 震级(M) 残差

Gansu, China 2008-10-03 03:47:47.880 40.65 97.67 565 4.3(mb) 2.4

Gansu, China 2008-10-03 03:45:56.600 35.99 106.16 10 4.3(Mw) 1.7

Sichuan, China2008-10-03 00:59:17.980 30.09 99.48 10 2.7(ML) 1.7

South Pacific Ocean2008-10-02 21:02:04.320 -40.92 -140.04 34 (ML) 1.1

Kermadec Islands, New Zealand2008-10-02 21:03:35.960 -29.14 -178.84 247 5.0(mb) 1.2

Afghanistan-Tajikistan Border Region2008-10-02 15:02:44.660 37.56 71.15 73 4.4(mb) 1.3

Sichuan, China2008-10-02 13:23:10.970 31.77 103.96 10 3.0(ML) 3.2

Sichuan, China2008-10-02 09:44:46.630 31.32 103.50 10 3.2(ML) 1.8

Mindanao, Philippines2008-10-02 09:25:45.190 8.53 124.85 398 4.8(Mw) 0.9

http://bulletin.gddsn.org.cn/seisbulletin/main.seam

Date & TimeUTC Latitude degrees Longitude degrees Depth km Mag. Region name

2008-10-02 19:19:51.0 39.50 N 33.08 E 5 MD 2.9 CENTRAL TURKEY

2008-10-02 16:38:03.4 38.71 N 31.76 E 3 MD 2.9 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 14:04:49.1 45.65 N 26.48 E 132 ML 4.0 ROMANIA

2008-10-02 13:03:03.6 31.01 S 178.00 W 48 mb 5.2 KERMADEC ISLANDS REGION

2008-10-02 12:48:53.0 57.61 N 19.50 E BALTIC SEA

2008-10-02 11:36:48.9 58.58 N 18.74 E BALTIC SEA

2008-10-02 11:30:52.0 37.91 N 72.65 E ML 3.3 TAJIKISTAN

2008-10-02 11:22:14.4 37.07 N 5.42 W 10 ML 3.2 SPAIN

2008-10-02 10:55:01.2 35.57 N 29.39 E 40 ML 3.4 EASTERN MEDITERRANEAN SEA

2008-10-02 09:57:49.0 37.05 N 5.44 W 10 ML 3.0 SPAIN

2008-10-02 09:22:13.6 37.07 N 5.41 W 8 ML 3.6 SPAIN

2008-10-02 09:05:10.0 37.06 N 5.44 W 10 ML 3.6 SPAIN

2008-10-02 08:26:00.9 36.96 N 29.12 E 5 ML 2.8 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 07:20:09.0 37.00 N 5.45 W 11 ML 2.0 SPAIN

2008-10-02 05:57:37.9 37.08 N 5.43 W 10 ML 2.8 SPAIN

2008-10-02 05:41:37.4 40.86 N 27.79 E 5 ML 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 05:26:01.0 37.00 N 5.43 W 16 ML 2.6 SPAIN

2008-10-02 05:14:19.3 37.07 N 5.46 W 8 ML 3.7 SPAIN

2008-10-02 05:11:46.3 37.08 N 5.43 W 8 ML 2.5 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:44:50.5 37.08 N 5.42 W 8 ML 3.7 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:20:09.1 37.04 N 5.46 W 15 ML 2.5 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:17:39.7 49.83 N 18.46 E 2 ML 2.3 CZECH REPUBLIC

2008-10-02 04:16:09.3 20.18 S 174.06 W 80 mb 5.3 TONGA

2008-10-02 04:13:05.0 37.10 N 5.47 W 13 ML 2.2 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:08:53.1 37.17 N 5.43 W ML 2.6 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:05:06.5 37.06 N 5.45 W 10 ML 3.7 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:02:53.7 37.05 N 5.44 W 10 mb 4.8 SPAIN

2008-10-02 04:02:15.4 36.98 N 29.11 E 5 MD 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 03:55:55.1 36.97 N 29.12 E 5 ML 3.4 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 03:22:37.4 37.00 N 29.17 E 6 MD 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 02:01:34.8 37.09 N 5.44 W 5 ML 3.0 SPAIN

2008-10-02 01:58:52.7 36.94 N 29.15 E 4 MD 2.8 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 01:54:15.9 35.82 N 27.66 E 12 MD 3.1 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

2008-10-02 01:52:05.4 36.97 N 29.12 E 3 MD 2.8 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 01:35:30.7 37.00 N 29.12 E 4 MD 3.2 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 01:27:07.8 50.15 N 18.43 E 10 ML 2.3 POLAND

2008-10-02 01:25:43.8 8.59 N 124.73 E 380 mb 4.7 MINDANAO, PHILIPPINES

2008-10-02 01:04:05.9 19.26 S 168.91 E 196 M 5.0 VANUATU

2008-10-02 00:55:11.5 35.94 N 21.21 E 10 ML 4.3 CENTRAL MEDITERRANEAN SEA

2008-10-02 00:28:48.0 36.93 N 29.14 E 2 MD 3.2 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 00:22:25.2 40.81 N 27.72 E 12 MD 2.7 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-02 00:18:47.4 50.15 N 18.89 E POLAND

2008-10-02 00:06:18.8 26.81 N 55.83 E 20 ML 3.8 SOUTHERN IRAN

2008-10-02 00:00:23.2 38.12 N 23.29 E 5 ML 3.0 GREECE

2008-10-01 23:58:24.0 38.83 N 68.21 E ML 3.1 TAJIKISTAN

2008-10-01 23:47:34.1 40.80 N 27.72 E 10 ML 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 23:06:47.6 36.95 N 29.14 E 5 MD 3.1 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 22:47:37.0 42.59 N 13.29 E 15 ML 3.0 CENTRAL ITALY

2008-10-01 22:10:52.0 36.69 N 28.01 E 5 MD 3.3 DODECANESE ISLANDS, GREECE

2008-10-01 21:52:41.6 36.98 N 29.12 E 5 ML 3.5 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 21:49:13.5 37.91 N 43.16 E 5 MD 2.9 TURKEY-IRAQ BORDER REGION

2008-10-01 21:42:26.6 3.42 S 100.39 E 30 mb 5.0 KEP. MENTAWAI REGION, INDONESIA

2008-10-01 21:07:47.6 32.41 N 47.83 E 25 ML 3.5 IRAN-IRAQ BORDER REGION

2008-10-01 20:40:45.8 37.05 N 36.02 E 12 MD 2.9 CENTRAL TURKEY

2008-10-01 20:22:04.3 36.94 N 29.14 E 4 MD 2.9 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 19:19:24.0 40.64 N 21.08 E 5 ML 2.6 GREECE

2008-10-01 19:06:06.5 39.53 N 33.08 E 5 MD 2.7 CENTRAL TURKEY

2008-10-01 18:39:52.0 43.93 N 84.48 E ML 3.0 NORTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

2008-10-01 18:26:04.2 36.98 N 29.11 E 5 MD 3.2 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 18:06:53.5 13.48 N 120.65 E 33 mb 5.1 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES

2008-10-01 18:04:31.3 13.48 N 120.54 E 60 mb 5.3 MINDORO, PHILIPPINES

2008-10-01 17:48:39.3 36.87 N 10.99 W 96 ML 2.5 AZORES-CAPE ST. VINCENT RIDGE

2008-10-01 17:03:47.1 34.97 S 70.71 W 100 mb 5.1 MAULE, CHILE

2008-10-01 16:31:08.7 43.05 N 18.90 E 5 f ML 2.7 MONTENEGRO

2008-10-01 16:29:33.1 2.87 S 129.79 E 10 mb 4.9 SERAM, INDONESIA

2008-10-01 16:23:50.4 39.02 N 29.95 E 10 MD 2.7 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 16:18:44.5 39.21 N 10.51 W 51 mb 3.6 NORTH ATLANTIC OCEAN

2008-10-01 15:24:01.6 5.24 S 150.94 E 166 mb 4.5 NEW BRITAIN REGION, P.N.G.

2008-10-01 14:15:53.3 0.86 S 33.87 E 25 M 4.6 LAKE VICTORIA REGION, UGANDA

2008-10-01 10:39:48.2 37.08 N 29.15 E 5 MD 3.2 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 10:00:48.0 50.65 N 13.15 E 12 GERMANY

2008-10-01 09:38:11.3 30.20 N 138.76 E 400 Mw 5.7 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

2008-10-01 09:19:39.0 54.11 N 66.51 E ML 3.3 RUSSIA-KAZAKHSTAN BORDER REGION

2008-10-01 07:34:46.9 26.14 N 125.13 E 126 mb 5.1 NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN

2008-10-01 06:19:49.4 17.54 S 178.81 W 578 mb 4.8 FIJI REGION

2008-10-01 05:21:05.6 36.98 N 29.13 E 7 MD 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 04:47:22.2 37.06 N 29.19 E 5 ML 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 04:34:00.7 36.93 N 29.18 E 7 MD 3.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 04:13:50.2 37.00 N 29.14 E 5 MD 3.1 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 04:08:55.5 36.97 N 29.13 E 5 MD 2.9 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 03:53:48.2 37.04 N 29.20 E 8 ML 4.0 WESTERN TURKEY

2008-10-01 03:12:23.2 1.59 N 96.62 E 27 mb 4.8 NIAS REGION, INDONESIA

2008-10-01 02:39:25.1 40.64 N 89.03 E 10 mb 4.5 SOUTHERN XINJIANG, CHINA

2008-10-01 00:53:57.6 46.73 N 152.15 E 60 mb 4.6 KURIL ISLANDS

http://www.emsc-csem.org/index.php?page=home

Origin Time UTC Mag Latitude degrees Longitude degrees Depth km AM Region Name

2008-10-02 13:03:06 5.5 30.87 S 177.93 W 59 A Kermadec Islands, New Zealand

2008-10-02 04:16:04 5.4 19.92 S 174.47 W 10 A Tonga Islands

2008-10-02 04:02:56 4.4 37.05 N 5.58 W 10 A Spain

2008-10-02 01:25:44 4.9 8.58 N 124.61 E 376 A Mindanao, Philippines

2008-10-02 00:55:19 4.4 36.26 N 21.52 E 10 A Southern Greece

2008-10-01 21:42:24 5.0 3.63 S 100.12 E 17 A Southern Sumatra, Indonesia

2008-10-01 18:48:15 4.2 2.23 S 100.55 E 10 M Southern Sumatra, Indonesia

2008-10-01 18:04:37 5.2 13.51 N 120.16 E 90 A Mindoro, Philippines

2008-10-01 17:03:50 5.0 35.08 S 70.86 W 118 A Chile-Argentina Border Region

2008-10-01 16:29:34 4.9 2.83 S 129.69 E 10 A Seram, Indonesia

2008-10-01 09:38:12 5.4 30.10 N 138.85 E 415 M Southeast of Honshu, Japan

2008-10-01 07:34:49 5.2 26.05 N 125.12 E 156 M Northeast of Taiwan

2008-10-01 06:19:46 5.0 17.52 S 178.70 W 539 M Fiji Islands Region

2008-10-01 03:53:48 4.3 36.99 N 29.23 E 10 M Turkey

2008-10-01 03:12:24 5.0 1.44 N 97.13 E 10 A Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2008-10-01 02:39:28 4.6 40.74 N 88.26 E 10 M Southern Xinjiang, China

2008-10-01 00:54:00 4.9 46.53 N 152.27 E 83 A Kuril Islands

2008-09-30 19:08:17 4.3 13.84 N 91.44 W 83 M Near Coast of Guatemala

2008-09-30 13:25:48 5.0 6.48 S 129.99 E 185 M Banda Sea

2008-09-30 07:35:25 5.0 9.59 S 124.74 E 56 A Timor Region

2008-09-30 07:30:07 4.6 38.91 N 29.86 E 15 A Turkey

2008-09-30 04:05:21 5.2 4.01 N 126.85 E 46 A Talaud Islands, Indonesia

2008-09-29 20:58:03 4.6 29.24 S 176.96 W 10 M Kermadec Islands Region

2008-09-29 20:21:35 4.4 2.21 N 96.32 E 10 M Northern Sumatra, Indonesia

2008-09-29 19:49:07 4.7 30.39 S 178.17 W 10 M Kermadec Islands, New Zealand

2008-09-29 19:20:19 4.7 71.63 N 3.70 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-29 19:16:44 4.6 71.45 N 3.81 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-29 16:56:08 4.5 4.64 S 125.45 E 452 M Banda Sea

2008-09-29 16:10:32 5.1 29.97 S 177.34 W 10 M Kermadec Islands, New Zealand

2008-09-29 15:19:26 7.2 29.77 S 177.64 W 10 M Kermadec Islands, New Zealand

2008-09-29 13:04:02 4.9 24.11 S 67.07 W 152 A Chile-Argentina Border Region

2008-09-29 11:26:50 3.3 51.13 N 15.65 E 10 A Poland

2008-09-29 11:03:54 4.7 71.45 N 4.01 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-29 03:57:46 4.3 26.90 N 56.38 E 10 M Southern Iran

2008-09-29 03:13:05 4.8 21.12 S 179.16 W 519 A Fiji Islands Region

2008-09-29 03:05:40 4.4 38.38 N 20.48 E 10 A Greece

2008-09-28 23:34:48 4.0 71.51 N 3.86 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-28 23:13:06 4.7 71.48 N 4.14 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-28 22:57:37 4.2 71.66 N 3.67 W 10 M Jan Mayen Island Region

2008-09-28 22:20:23 5.1 71.56 N 3.93 W 10 A Jan Mayen Island Region

http://geofon.gfz-potsdam.de/db/eqinfo.php

参考文献

1． 杨学祥. 下一个7级强震：2008年10月至2009年2月强潮汐时期. 发表于2008-9-5 10:18:41科学网。→ http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=37759

2． 杨学祥. 新一轮强震正在到来：5-6月达到高峰. 2008-2-22上海环境热线.绿色论坛。 → http://www.envir.gov.cn/forum/2008/200812224.htm

3． 杨学祥. 正在逼近的地震灾害判断得到证实. 发表于2008-5-16 15:22:14. 科学网。http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=25482

4． 俄罗斯北千岛群岛地区新知岛发生4.8级地震。17:02 | 2008-10-02 俄新网。http://www.rusnews.cn/eguoxinwen/eluosi_shigu/20081002/42286192.html

5． 杨学祥. 10月5日中纬度地震增强：日本发生5.6级地震. 发表于2008-10-2 3:23:05科学网。→ http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=41131

附图见：杨学祥. 2008年9月29日至10月2日海温异常与地震. 发表于2008-10-3 6:26:41科学网http://www.sciencenet.cn/blog/user_content.aspx?id=41225