一、对中国青海西8.1级巨震的短临预测

作者运用“磁暴月相二倍法”在2001年11月5日召开对2002年的年度地震趋势会上提交了一篇题为“近期对全球8级左右大震的短临预测意见”。在这篇文章中明确指出：2001年11月22日±6天在新疆及边邻地区（46.5°N，85.0°E或40.0°N，90.0°E为中心300公里范围内）。可能发生一次Ms＝8左右的巨大地震。

结果于2001年11月14日在新疆的边邻地区（36.2°N，90.9°E）发生了一次8.1级巨大地震，这是自1950年西藏察隅8.6级巨震后50多年来在我国境内超过8级的一次最大地震。

二、对俄、蒙、中交界处7.9级巨震的短临预测

作者运用“磁暴月相二倍法”于2003年9月19日分别向国家863计划地震预测课题组、中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会，并在2003年9月24日向中国地震局预报部门邮寄了一篇题为“近期对全球8级左右大地震的短临预测意见”。在这篇文章中明确指出：2003年10月10日±5天或±10天，在新疆的中蒙边境地区（44.5°N，93.5°E为中心200公里范围内）可能发生一次Ms＝8级左右巨大地震。

结果于2003年9月27日在俄、蒙、中交界处（49.9°N，87.9°E）发生了一次7.9级巨大地震。

三、对巴基斯坦7.8级巨震的短临预测

作者运用“磁暴月相二倍法”于2005年9月26日填写了“地震短临预测卡片”编号为2005-5，用挂号信邮寄给中国地震局预报部门预测：2005年10月12日±5天或±10天，在我国西部或四川省西部地区，可能发生Ms=6.5～7.5级大震，但不排除在其他地区内发生7.5级以上大震。这一“预测卡片”的复印件同时分别邮寄给中国地震预测咨询委员会和中国地球物理学会天灾预测专业委员会以及许绍燮院士。

结果于2005年10月8日在我国西部邻国的巴基斯坦发生了一次7.8级巨大地震。

四、结论和讨论

本方法属经验性的预测，特别在发震的时间和震级上有较好对应，地点偏差较大，有待进一步的完善和研究。

本文是在国家863项目（2001AA115012）和地震科学联合基金会老专家预报专项（305012）资助下完成的，在此表示深切感谢。

作者简介：沈宗丕，男，高级工程师，中国地震预测咨询委员会委员，主要从事“以震报震”和“以磁报震”的研究工作。

The short term forcast

on 3 large earthquakes around 8 magnitude

SHEN Zong-pi, LIN Ming-zhou, ZHAO Lun

(Shanghai Seismological Bureau, Shanghai 200062)

1. The short term forcast on large earthquake (Ms:8.1) in western Qinghai,China

On Nov 5, 2001, at the Annual Earthquake Forecast on Year 2002 Conference held by Shanghai Seismological Bureau, the authors submit an article named “ The recent forcast on large earthquake around 8 magnitude in the world” using the method of “Two times method of magnetic storm and lunar phase”. In this article it was clearly pointed out that on Nov 22, 2001 or 6 days before or later, there would be probably a large earthquake around Ms:8 in the Xinjiang province or nearby（within the 300 KM range centered 46.5°N，85.0°E or 40.0°N，90.0°E）.

The fact is on Nov 14, 2001 there occurred a large earthquake Ms:8.l in the nearby area of Xin Jiang province, which was the largest earthquake over 8 magnitude in over 50 years in our territory since the large earthquake Ms:8.6 in Tibet’s Cha Yu area in 1950.

2. The short term forcast on large earthquake (Ms:7.9) on the boundary among Russia, Mongolia and China

Respectively on Sept 19 and 24 of 2003 the authors mailed an article named “ The recent forcast on large earthquake around 8 magnitude in the world” using the method of “Two times method of magnetic storm and lunar phase”. In this article it was clearly pointed out that on Oct 10, 2003 or 5 or 10 days before or later, there would be probably a large earthquake around Ms:8 on the boundary with Mongolia in Xin Jiang province（within the 200 KM range centered 44.5°N，93.5°E）.

The fact is on Sept 27, 2003 there occurred a large earthquake Ms:7.9 on the boundary area of Russia, Mongolia and China (49.9°N，87.9°E).

3. The short term forcast on large earthquake (Ms:7.8) in Pakistan

On Sept 26 2005, the author produced a card of short term forecast on earthquake with serial number “2005-5”using the method of “Two times method of magnetic storm and lunar phase”, and posted to the forecast department of China Seismological Bureau with registed letter. This card forecasted that on Oct 12, 2005 or 5 or 10 days before or later, there would be probably a large earthquake between Ms:6.5 and 7.5 in Western China area or western area of Si Chuan, but not excluding the possibility of large earthquakes over 7.5 magnitude in other areas. The copies of this card were at the same time posted to the earthquake forecast and consulting committee of China, the natural disaster forecast professional committee of China Geophysics and the academician Mr. Xu Shao Xie.

The fact is on Oct 8, 2005 there occurred a large earthquake Ms:7.8 in Pakistan, our west neighbouring country.

4. The Conclusion and discussion

This method is a forecast based on former experience. There is good corresponding on the time and magnitude of earthquakes, but great discrepancy in spot. So it need further improvement and research.

This article is achieved under the sponsorship from the national 863 project (2001AA115012) and the expert forecast special programme (305012) of the joint fund of seismological science. We are here to thank them all.

Brief introduction on the author:

Mr.Shen zong pi, male, senior engineer. Member of the earthquake forecast and consulting committee of China, majored in the research work of “earthquake forecast based on earthquake” and “ earthquake forecast based on magnetism”